Water FractalTier 1
at ZARC PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.1%
avg ELO +9.0 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1281
· range 1268–1293
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1168
Q3 1330
1468
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
